World Cup 2026: The Biggest Prediction Challenge in Football History Kicks Off Next Week

Six Days Out: The Field Is Set

The wait is almost over. On 11 June, Mexico will face South Africa at the Estadio Azteca in Mexico City to open the 2026 FIFA World Cup — the first tournament to feature 48 teams, the first hosted across three countries, and the first to include a round of 32 in the knockout stage.

All 48 squads were confirmed on 2 June, with each nation naming up to 26 players. The final playoff spots have been filled: Bosnia & Herzegovina stunned Italy on penalties in the UEFA Path A final to earn their second-ever World Cup appearance, while Sweden, Türkiye, and Czechia won the other three European routes. Iraq — returning to the World Cup for the first time since 1986 — and DR Congo claimed the last two places through the intercontinental playoffs in Mexico.

Italy's absence is the biggest story of qualifying. Four-time champions, beaten on penalties by Bosnia in Sarajevo — they've now missed three consecutive World Cups. It's a seismic omission from a prediction standpoint too, removing one of the sport's most decorated nations from every bracket.

Everything You Knew About the World Cup Has Changed

For decades, World Cup predictions followed a familiar script. Thirty-two teams. Eight groups of four. The same handful of nations jostling at the top of every bracket. That era is over.

The 12 groups of four feed into a brand-new round of 32 — the top two from each group plus the eight best third-placed teams all progress. From there, it's knockout football all the way to the final at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey on 19 July. To lift the trophy, the winners will have played eight matches across 39 days. That's never happened before.

The expansion doesn't just add quantity — it changes the prediction calculus fundamentally. Countries like Uzbekistan, Cabo Verde, Curaçao, and Jordan are in the finals for the first time. Historical head-to-head records are sparse or non-existent for many group-stage pairings. And the geography — from the altitude of Mexico City (2,240m) to the humid heat of Miami to the air-conditioned comfort of AT&T Stadium in Dallas — introduces variables that no model can fully account for.

The Groups: What We Know Now

With the playoff spots filled, the groups drawn in December are now complete. Here are the ones that stand out from a prediction perspective:

Group C: Brazil, Morocco, Japan, Cameroon — The group of death, and it's not close. Brazil arrive without Rodrygo (ACL) and Estêvão, weakening their attacking options significantly. Morocco were World Cup semi-finalists in 2022. Japan beat both Germany and Spain in Qatar. Picking the two qualifiers here is genuinely anyone's guess.

Group I: France, Senegal, Norway, Iraq — France are clear favourites, but Hugo Ekitike's torn Achilles is a blow to their attacking depth. Norway's qualification — their first World Cup since 1998 — brings Erling Haaland to the tournament at last, and Iraq's remarkable qualifying journey (ending a 40-year absence) adds an emotional wildcard.

Group L: England, Croatia, Ghana, Panama — England will be expected to top this comfortably under Thomas Tuchel, but Croatia have a habit of rising to tournament occasions. Henderson makes a record-equalling fourth World Cup appearance alongside Sir Bobby Charlton.

Group B: Canada, Switzerland, Qatar, Bosnia & Herzegovina — The hosts will want to impress, but Switzerland's knockout-round reliability and Bosnia's momentum from that stunning playoff run make this less straightforward than it looks.

Group J: Argentina, Algeria, Austria, Jordan — The defending champions have a kind draw on paper. But the Messi question looms over everything.

The Messi Watch

The biggest pre-tournament storyline centres on a 38-year-old nursing a hamstring.

Lionel Messi left Inter Miami's match against Philadelphia Union on 24 May with muscle fatigue in his left hamstring. He joined Argentina's training camp in Kansas City this week but has been training alone, following an individual programme while the rest of the squad train together.

Argentina's Football Association has been cautiously optimistic, stating the players with niggles are "making good progress." Messi is expected to miss the warm-up friendlies against Honduras (6 June) and Iceland (9 June), with the focus entirely on being fit for the opener against Algeria on 16 June.

This is Messi's record sixth World Cup — no outfield player has ever appeared at that many. He turns 39 during the tournament. The question isn't whether he can still produce moments of genius (his 12 goals and 8 assists in 13 MLS appearances this season answer that) — it's whether his body can sustain eight matches in the North American summer if Argentina go deep. Scaloni's squad management will be one of the most fascinating tactical stories of the tournament.

The Injury Picture

Messi isn't the only star under the physio's hands. The injury tracker makes uncomfortable reading for several contenders:

Already ruled out: Rodrygo and Éder Militão (both Brazil, ACL), Estêvão (Brazil), Samu Aghehowa (Spain, ACL), Hugo Ekitike (France, torn Achilles), Matthijs de Ligt (Netherlands, back), Patrick Agyemang and Johnny Cardoso (both USA).

Race against time: Alphonso Davies (Canada, hamstring from the Champions League semi-final), Nahuel Molina (Argentina, thigh), José María Giménez (Uruguay, ankle).

Managed carefully: Messi (Argentina, hamstring fatigue), Lamine Yamal (Spain, on track for opener), Arda Güler (Türkiye, hamstring but fit).

Brazil are the hardest hit. Losing Rodrygo's versatility and Estêvão's creativity from a squad that was already underperforming in CONMEBOL qualifying could be decisive. Spain, despite losing the exciting Aghehowa, have the deepest squad in the tournament and should absorb the blow.

The Prediction Landscape

Spain enter as clear favourites at around 15-17% implied probability — Dimers' supercomputer gives them a 16.8% chance after running 10,000 simulations. France and England are next in the betting, followed by Argentina and Brazil. Those five account for roughly 55-60% of the market's expectation, meaning there's close to a coin-flip chance that none of the top five favourites win.

The expanded format amplifies that uncertainty. With an extra knockout round, there's an additional elimination point where favourites can be caught cold. More matches means more fatigue, more injuries, and more room for the unexpected.

Dark horses worth watching: Morocco (semi-finalists in 2022 and even stronger now), Japan (topped a group containing Germany and Spain in Qatar), Colombia and Ecuador (both emerging from brutal CONMEBOL qualifying), and the three host nations — particularly the United States, whose home advantage across 11 venues shouldn't be underestimated.

What This Means for Your Predictions

Start now. The group draw is done, the squads are in, and the injury picture is becoming clearer by the day. The best prediction league players build a framework in advance — identifying likely group winners, potential banana skins, and knockout matchups where upsets are plausible.

Respect the expanded format. This isn't the World Cup you're used to. If your strategy has always been "pick the big names and hope for the best," 2026 is the tournament that will punish that approach. Third-placed teams can still progress, which changes the tactical incentives — a team that's already lost once might play for a draw rather than risk a heavier defeat.

Watch the conditions. Teams in the Western regional pod will deal with heat, altitude, and long flights. Those in the Eastern pod face more moderate conditions but time-zone adjustments for European squads. These factors will influence results in ways that team-quality rankings can't capture.

Follow the fitness bulletins. In a tournament where eight matches is the path to the final, the difference between a fully fit squad and one carrying two or three key injuries could be the difference between lifting the trophy and going home in the round of 32. Messi's hamstring, Davies's fitness, Brazil's depleted attack — these stories will shape the tournament.

The 2026 World Cup is the ultimate prediction challenge — bigger, more unpredictable, and more rewarding than ever. ScorePick is running prediction leagues for the tournament. Get in, make your picks, and find out if you can call the biggest World Cup in history.